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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 11:59:00 -
[1]
What kind of reason do you guys see?
I have 3 reasons on my radar so far:
1) Resellers think they can get their part of the T2-BS cake as demand will rise above normal supply.. wouldn't they have bought waaaayyyyyy earlier?
2) Resellers think that the recently occured POS-Bugs and their exploitation will led to a dip in advanced material supply for the next time.. this makes more sense to me as the above, as you need to read the forums to get this kind of information and realize it's consequences.
3) T2-component-producer rising production for the new stuff and buy nearly everthing they can get hold of.. hm, same as 1) as I don't think they wouldn't plan beforehand - I buy weekly and the traded volume per day is BIG over all
I don't think that it's the T2-producers.. escpecially the T2-BS-producers, as I can't see the price-rise comming from the T2-components - they're relatively stable from my point of view in forge and essence.. it's the advanced materials that rised in price over the last 24hrs.
Crystalline Carbonide Armor Plates: 100/u to 130/u
Sylramic Fibres: 190/u to 280/u
Hypersynaptic Fibres: 4100/u to 4450/u
However.. I bought more than half of the stuff I needed cheaper in oursu today as jita started to screw up my calculations. 
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:28:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 08/12/2007 12:30:07
 Originally by: Macdeth
Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good.
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Originally by: Macdeth
Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
That's why I wrote that the t2-component prices WHEREN'T affected.. their prices had rised slowly over the last two weeks. It's clearly the price-spike in the last 24hrs on the advanced materials I wonder about..
Originally by: Macdeth
Even though most of the information's available ahead of time enabling informed people to make a mint, most people just aren't so obsessed as to spend countless hours poring over patch notes, messing about with things that may change again on the test server, etc.
Another one.. if I buy the advanced materials low and sell them as t2 components for a markup and also buy t2 components low and sell the finished t2 product for a markup I make more than by buying the advanced materials, build the t2 components from it and sell the finished t2 product with an markup..
I even make more money if I just concentrate on one of those fields.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 15:30:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Lots of people do, because they have the spare factory slots for the extra 10% profit and think it's worthwhile.
Possible but unlikely if you look at the numbers of needed components and their buildtime.. especially when you consider that you need even more components now with rised chances.
Originally by: Macdeth
Second, because volume producers love their 30 day batches, finished component prices trail behind the spot market for input materials.
As I said.. the t2 component prices anticipated the advanced material prices AND the price-hike of the advanced materials happened in the last 24hrs.. this is the opposite of your view!
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Most people are dumb, what can I say? This is why it's easy for people with capital to turn around and make tens of billions in a few days around patch times, almost every time.
Sounds more like advantages got used by anticipating game-mechanic-changes.. but you're right.. some a dumb 
Originally by: Macdeth
Also I skimmed your message pretty badly, both times
Gallente T2 jump freighters are your entire answer.
Hm.. doesn't explain the spike, as jump frighter build ops will have made their preparations weeks before. Otherwise this kind of business wouldn't be doable at all.. I mean it's not as we're speaking about some lousy t1 friggs here. The logistics behind those kind of biz simply can't work like that..
So I don't think the T2-JF-builders are to 'blame' 
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 17:06:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
..And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices..
I'm not whining.. how do you come to this conclusion?
Just wanted to share some thoughts with othres what they think about this.. especially in relation to the pos-bugs.
And gratz to your achievement. Keep it up mate! 
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 01:44:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 09/12/2007 01:49:16
So you're all saying, that it's because of simple new-shiny-t2-gear, right?
K..
Just thought that those POS-Bugs could have something to do with it, as 2 days after patch everything was ok with the prices (especially with the t2 components, which should had risen before the advanced materials, if this is induced by late t2-gear-producing-entities).
As the rumors about POSs-taken-down-news in forums got more in front of recognizing, the resellers could had seen their chance and bought the advanced materials, as supplies of them will suffer first..
However.. I'm in no position to have a clue about the status of the POSs so I'll take your words. Thx for sharing info and may your trades be fruitfull.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 11:24:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Admiral Nova
Hmm, any POS with a cyno generator on it no longer produces anything (mining or reacting). And you can't turn the cyno generator off... Fun.
This coupled with the bridges means that supply is being turned off at just the time demand is being ramped up.
Me wonders how long this will affect supplies.. I mean, what numbers are we talking about here?
Patch was deployed when? .. thursday morning.. so we have a shortage since then. But how much is this shortage? 5%? 10%? 20%?
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.11 12:19:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 11/12/2007 12:19:23
Originally by: Algorithm 5
You want the low down?
Hm.. not really. But I'm very thankfull (in words  ) that you gave me (and the attendant readers naturally) some deeper insight.
Originally by: Algorithm 5
But to summarise, the reason that advanced materials are spiking, is because there's people with large amounts of isk that are better at math than you :)
(and of course, mostly better than me) :)
Hehe.. glad you added that last part with the edit, otherwise I would have replied something offending
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.12 11:19:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs
I'd like to push that a little further saying that most of the T2 production market ignores each other part unless it's your part. Fatal mistake for a lot of people. Managed to save 25% on material costs on numerous occasions thanks to people selling massively below manufacture cost
How do you know?
Different regions have different prices for different stuff at different times..
So, you're in NO POSITION whatsoever, for judging what kind of manufacturing costs any market sell order has.. you can assume, yes, but not more.
And you can say if something is really undervalued (if the components in all regions never had been that cheap - like 'minerals I mine a free').
But you never can say how somebody calculations look like, so better stay quiet or use your money and capitalize on their stuff..
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